Climate Change

The Science of Climate Change

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global warming is accelerated by human activity. The fourth IPCC Assessment Report, released February 1, 2007 is a comprehensive analysis of the current global knowledge of climate change. The report was compiled by 2500 scientific experts, 800 contributing authors and 450 lead authors from 130 countries over the period of six years. The fifth assessment report is now underway.

The IPCC Assessment Report concludes that the earth's climate is warming and that the primary cause of that warming is human activity, particularly that which increases the presence and concentrations of gases in the atmosphere that are known as "greenhouse gases (GHG). Six gases have been identified as GHGs of particular significance including:

  • Carbon dioxide;
  • Methane;
  • Nitrous oxide;
  • Hydrofluorocarbons;
  • Perfuorocarbons; and
  • Sulphur hexafluoride.

Greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere by inhibiting the out-radiation of solar energy that hits the earth's surface, thereby trapping extra heat and warming the earth's atmosphere. The impacts of global warming are believed to be significant and generally include:

  • Increased flooding;
  • Ocean level rise;
  • Changes in water supplies to cities;
  • Increase in number and intensity of storms;
  • Longer, hotter summers;
  • Shorter, wetter winters;
  • Increase in new and tropical diseases and other health care issues;
  • Fluctuation in supply and price of hydro-electricity;
  • Land and aquatic species changes;
  • Agricultural production changes;
  • Widespread impacts on the economy; and
  • Increase in environmental refugees.

Predicted (possibly inevitable) impacts of climate change on Vancouver

It is impossible to predict exactly what the impacts of climate change will be to Vancouver, but scientists have identified some of the implications that Vancouver can probably expect to face.

Flooding - Flooding is expected to increase due to increased storm intensity, wetter winters and ocean level rise.

Ocean level rise - The ocean is predicted to rise between several inches and a meter over the next 100 years depending on what climate model is used. This rise may impact Vancouver's waterfront, marinas, port, seawall and properties, particularly when considered in conjunction with an increase in storm intensity.

Changes in water supply - Metro Vancouver predicts a reduction in the snow pack on the northshore mountains over the next several decades due to climate change. This may have impacts on the quality and quantity of Vancouver's water supply, including increased winter runoff in the rivers and streams, increased landslides into the reservoirs, a reduction in water available in late summer, and others.

Increase in number and intensity of storms - Vancouver can expect to face an increase in both the number and intensity of storms. These may bring damage to public and private property from wind and flooding.

Longer hotter summers - Scientists predict our summers will be longer and hotter than in the past. This will result in increased demand on our water supply and an increase in the risk of fires. It may also increase health problems.

Shorter wetter winters - Vancouver's winters are predicted to be shorter (in terms of average temperature), but to be more intense in terms of temperature fluctuations and rainfall. This may result in increased flooding and erosion.

Diseases - An increase in average temperature may permit certain diseases more common in the south to migrate north to Vancouver. The fear of West Nile Virus in the summer of 2003 is an example.

Health care issues - The increase in temperature, diseases and storms is expected to increase health care issues, including diseases, respiratory problems, stress and others.

Hydro-electricity fluctuation in supply and price - The change in precipitation (less in summer, more in winter and less predictability overall) will affect the flows in BC rivers that may impact the reliability of some hydro-electricity rates.

Land and aquatic species changes - The change in temperature and precipitation patterns over time may result in changes in species on both land and in water. Foreign species from warmer climates may challenge existing species in some cases for their ecological niches, creating local scarcities.

Agricultural production changes- The increase in overall temperature and changes in precipitation may impact agricultural sectors permitting increased production in some areas or crops and a reduction in others.

Impacts on the economy - The Vancouver economy may face changes due to climate change impacts including changes in the forestry and fishing sectors, changes in tourism, insurance and others.

Environmental refugees - Many from other countries and areas of the world will face catastrophic impacts from changes in the climate and it is likely that Canada and Vancouver will be drawn into assisting these groups, via financial support and receiving immigration.

To mitigate these impacts City of Vancouver has Council approved climate protection action plans.

Canada's Kyoto Gap

The Cool Vancouver Task Force recommended a minimum community reduction target of 6% below 1990 levels by 2010, acknowledging that further reductions will likely be required in the future in order to stabilize the climate.

Although in the early 1990s Canada identified a commitment of a 6% reduction below 1990 levels, it has continued to increase its emissions since that time. As a result, based on projected emissions rates for 2010, the actual reduction required is closer to 26% from current patterns. With 2010 fast approaching, the challenge of meeting this reduction is not to be underestimated.

Policy Context

Many levels of government are addressing climate change. These initiatives form a policy context for the City's work on GHG reduction.

  • International
  • Federal
  • Federation of Canadian Municipalities
  • Provincial
  • Regional
  • Other cities

The City of Vancouver's initiative to develop a GHG Reduction Plan is proceeding in the context of a wide range of policy and programs to support it from all levels of government.

Many of the senior government initiatives and plans directly involve local government or initiatives that will impact local jurisdictions and as such, the development of a strategic action plan is a wise course of action for Vancouver.

International Policy

As climate change is fundamentally a global issue, a range of international initiatives exists to address climate change. Three of the more notable are described below.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
The first notable international initiative is the UNFCCC where work has focused around the development, negotiation and promotion of the Kyoto Protocol, as discussed earlier. The work is supported by a Secretariat that coordinates the international work on climate change around this agreement.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
The IPCC was formed through a collaboration of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988. The IPCC's role is "to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation." The IPCC does not do original research but rather assesses issues through peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature. It publishes its findings for wider use and consideration.

International Council of Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI)
ICLEI is a group formed by the United Nations as an international association of local governments working together to implement sustainable development. Currently ICLEI has more than 430 cities, towns, counties, and their associations from around the world as full Members of the Council, with hundreds of additional local governments participating in specific ICLEI campaigns and projects.

Federal Policy

Many federal government departments have initiatives to address climate change, including Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Health Canada, Transport Canada.

Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM)

The Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM) administers two federal funds (Green Municipal Enabling Fund & Green Municipal Investment Fund) to support municipal actions to make the country more sustainable and reduce emissions. The City of Vancouver has accessed these funds on a number of occasions to support its initiatives, including studies on the Southeast False Creek project.

Provincial Policy

The BC provincial government has a number of Ministries dealing with a range of initiatives to address climate change, including the Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection, Ministry of Forests and the Ministry of Energy and Mines, amongst others. More info.

The range of policy initiatives includes education campaigns, technical reports on the extent and impacts of climate change in BC, business planning for response to climate change and most recently, a "Report of the BC Climate Change Economic Impacts Panel."

The province approved an Energy Policy that highlights the exploration for fossil fuel reserves on and off shore as a priority. This policy may place challenges in the face of initiatives to achieve real GHG reductions in the province.

The BC Climate Action Plan was released in June 2008. This plan is B.C.’s roadmap to a new, prosperous, green economy for the province. It outlines strategies and initiatives to take B.C. approximately 73 per cent towards meeting the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 33 per cent by 2020. In April 2009 the Province released an Energy Plan Report to provide updates on the 55 policy actions.

Regional Policy

Metro Vancouver also has a wide range of initiatives underway to support GHG reductions. First and foremost is their regional land use planning processes and the resulting plans, including the Livable Region Strategic Plan and more recently, the Sustainable Region Initiative. Metro Vancouver's DSM Group has many initiatives underway with business, local governments and community groups to support GHG reductions.

Canadian Cities

Toronto Atmospheric Fund
A number of other cities are pursuing GHG reduction plans and initiatives in Canada. Most notable are Toronto, Edmonton and Ottawa, amongst others. Each has developed a range of initiatives. Toronto has established the Toronto Atmospheric Fund (TAF) that manages a grant program to the City and other organizations for GHG reduction initiatives, based on a several million-dollar endowment. Edmonton has been working on a GHG reduction plan for several years and is in the final stages of planning and commencing implementation.

Many Canadian Cities have commenced the process of addressing GHG reductions through a program known as the Partners for Climate Protection administered through the Federation of Canadian Municipalities. Vancouver is member of this program, along with over one hundred other Canadian municipalities.

ICLEI has been instrumental in promoting GHG reduction planning and is working with many hundred municipalities around the world on climate change issues.