Climate change and sea level rise

Understanding sea level rise

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  Predicting future sea level increases

  Historic sea level rise cannot be used to predict future increases given the increasing pace of climate change. Higher sea levels in the future will:

  • Erode beaches
  • Damage or destroy buildings and infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas
  • Permanently inundate some locations

  Beaches and critical coastal ecosystems will be lost and areas near the coast will experience soil salinization resulting from salty ocean water pushing up into the groundwater table.

  Greenhouse gases heating our planet

  The greenhouse gases (GHGs) that we have already emitted into our atmosphere will continue to heat our planet for thousands of years, regardless of how effective we are at reducing global carbon emissions.

  Why? Once emitted into the atmosphere, GHGs have a long lifespan. Over their lifespan they interact with global atmospheric and oceanic systems in ways that disrupt our climate patterns. Globally, we are “locked-in” to a certain level of continued warming and sea level rise for the foreseeable future.

  Some causes of sea level rise

  

  • Melting glaciers and polar ice caps
  • Changes in ocean circulation
  • Settling or sinking of land
  • Warming oceans cause water to expand

   

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  How long sea level rise will take

  The last major assessment report completed by the United Nations’ International Panel on climate change in 2014 indicated that it is happening more quickly than they expected in their 2007 assessment report.

  The next assessment report to be released in the fall of 2021 is expected to report increases in the expected pace of sea level rise.

  How much sea level rise a child born today can expect over their lifetime

  

  The graphic illustrates how much sea level rise a child born today can expect over their lifetime. The lighter blue represents a higher forecast that could see up to 1.4 metres of sea level rise by 2100.

  Both the dark blue and light blue sea level projection lines continue upwards as the greenhouse gases that we have already emitted into our atmosphere will continue to heat our planet for thousands of years, regardless of how effective we are at reducing global carbon emissions. Globally, we are “locked-in” to a certain level of continued warming and sea level rise for the foreseeable future. At this stage, 2 metres of sea level rise over time appears unavoidable. 

How sea level rise will affect Vancouver

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  Storm surges and king tides

  From December to February, Vancouver regularly experiences winter storms whose winds can push water levels up anywhere from 50 cm to 100 cm above normal levels. These events are called storm surges and can generate problems when they coincide with high seasonal tides, called king tides. King tides occur three or four times a year during the winter months and are 50 cm to 100 cm higher than regular high tides.

  King tides offer us a chance to see what normal sea levels may look like in the future as they rise due to climate change. By 2050, when sea levels are expected to be 50 cm higher than today, our regular sea levels could look like some of today’s king tides.

  Storm surge

  Current conditions, no storm surge

  

  Current conditions and storm surge

  

  Future conditions with sea level rise and storm surge

  

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  Intertidal areas at risk

  From heavily industrial waterfronts along Burrard Inlet, to more natural ocean shorelines between Kitsilano Beach, and Jericho Beach, and along the Fraser River estuary from Boundary Road to the marsh flats near Musqueam, our city’s coastline is as varied and dynamic as the city it surrounds.

  It is Vancouver’s more natural coastlines, and the important intertidal areas they are home to, that are particularly at risk from climate change. These intertidal ecosystems will be impacted, reduced, and squeezed over time as they face permanent inundation due to rising sea levels and increased development pressure on land.

  Low and high tides

  Low and high tides today

  

  2050 low and high tides

  

  2100 low and high tides

  

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  Coastal floodplain

  Vancouver’s current shoreline infrastructure is not designed to withstand rising sea levels and future storm events.

  Vancouver’s coastal floodplain today and in 2100

  

  Without flood management measures in place, the areas in dark blue are vulnerable to flooding due to a major storm (1:500 event) today, and the areas in light blue are vulnerable to flooding due to a major storm and 1 metre of sea level rise by 2100.

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